Back to the revolving door PM system

The resignation of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ushers in a return to the political turmoil of the past. The present mess is likely to prove to be merely the beginnings of a new era of instability for an already demoralized nation.

Reversion to the dreay revolving door system of the 1990s where Japanese premiers seemingly came and went every few months is now unavoidable. The present weaknesses of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party guarantee that Abe's successor is likely to have his work cut out in preventing the opposition from using all possible parliamentary means to force a general election in the near future.

The Democratic Party of Japan senses that it now has a golden opportunity not only to keep on wounding the LDP-led coalition government but to capitalize on deep public anger at the manner in which Abe is quitting office, to win power.

Signs of the 1990s are inescapable. Scandals are back in the headlines once again to snare those who may have been less than vigilant over election expenses, while cabinets are going  to be patched up temporary constructions with policy debates likely to get short shrift.

From today, politicians of all parties are going to have no option but to concentrate on the subtle mathematics of their game. Public opinion surveys and talk of election scenarios must inevitably take precedence over all but the most pressing of events.

Economic reform is almost certainly doomed as those aggrieved groups that blooded Abe can now expect to be courted by all parties. Equally, foreign policy initiatives that might have linked the LDP to closer cooperation with other Asian and Pacific friends of U.S. President George W Bush are likely to be postponed as Japanese domestic concerns take center stage.

Abe's abrupt resignation can only lead to additional pain for the conservatives and their coalition ally. The public is clearly unhappy at the explanations being served up by the prime minister and his spokesmen. Many feel that Abe ought to have done the honorable thing and resigned once the size of the recent Upper House debacle was known. Even the prime minister's few remaining supporters are scratching their heads over suggestions that ill health or the failure of DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa to meet with the prime minister were the real causes of the decision to step down.

In the final resort, the question of how to come up with new legislation to permit the refuelling of U.S. warships by the Maritime Self Defense Force in the Indian Ocean ought to have been solvable by the Abe cabinet. What was lacking appears to have been the political will to either compromise with the Democrats or to adopt parliamentary techniques that would have outflanked the once pro-American Ozawa. Inexperience mixed with cowardice may go some way to explain Abe's resignation.

The timing and manner of Abe's departure leaves him naked and his party highly vulnerable. His successor will have his hands full in attempting to delay what may well become thunderous demands for a general election.

Japanese politics may now be more interesting but the prospects for trouble are sure to grow. The opposition might turn out to have its own share of internal policy problems and the public could soon discover that kicking out the present gang proves to be no panacea. It is all a recipe for beautiful confusion.