Fukuda should act over Myanmar

As Myanmar edges nearer to the brink, Japan's newly-installed prime minister should immediately step forward and make his voice heard. Yasuo Fukuda now has the ideal opportunity to tell the region and the wider world where Japan stands and what it intends to do to combat Myanmar's nasty military regime. The old game of insisting that behind-the-scenes gentle persuasion is the best way forward can no longer be defended and a more open, critical and specific raft of measures is urgently called for by Tokyo.

It simply won't wash for Japan to keep on with its claims to being the leader of the region unless it comes forward with public condemnations and clear programs that aim to bring down the junta. You cannot insist that you speak for the more democratic parts of the Asia-Pacific region and then instantly retreat to little more than slaps on the wrist against Yangon's widely-detested generals.

Fukuda needs to get his act together and fast. He must talk not only to his nation's diplomats, the bosses of his own Liberal Democratic Party and allies in his Buddhist-based coalition cabinet but also to individuals who know Myanmar from the inside. He should be reminded by those Japanese with United Nations experience of what conditions are like on the ground and hear their recommendations on how best to destabilize the Myanmar army. Examination of past reports by Japan's former special rapporteur to Myanmar would show how minimal has been the pace toward creating a less repressive country.

This is no time for the cautious voices who invariably insist that sanctions will only hurt the man in the street and the student in the tea shop. The bulk of the  people are already suffering and their recent brave demonstrations are in part a result of announced price increases for basic commodities. 

Of course, there are major risks in advocating a more dynamic anti-junta program, but desperate times call for a cranking up of sustained pressure against Yangon. Economic sanctions may hurt the disadvantaged, reducing aid and NGO contacts is hard to justify in humanitarian quarters at home, and the freezing out of those who provide valuable information from within Mayanmar is a minus, yet it may have to be done.

Fukuda, whose reputation is that of a foreign policy wonk, should seize his chance and offer a serious set of measures that demonstrate what Japan intends to do. The new Japanese government, working quickly and loudly with allies in the region, ought to telegraph to the Myanmar government  in no uncertain language that repression no longer pays. Public condemnation followed by economic, financial and travel restrictions are vital.

Looking further ahead, Asia is also entitled to expect that Japan will be offering economic assistance and professional personnel to cope with the prospect of the ending of General Than Shwe's regime. The so-called "Saffron Revolution," assuming that it succeeds, would then be the beginning of a massive series of changes in Yangon. Reconstruction is certain to bring both opportunities and headaches and it would be best to caution the public of probable roadblocks that face Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy. Initial expectations for any pro-democracy government need to be kept low.

Fukuda only has a brief space in which to initiate detailed, anti-military policies for Myanmar. It would do wonders for his reputation and that of Japan if he were brave enough to stick his head above the parapet.